Books about Improbable from Amazon.com

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.

Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book–itself a black swan..
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On the mean streets of Jersey City, St. Anthony High School is more than a tiny brick schoolhouse—it is a beacon of hope. Though the school constantly teeters on the brink of bankruptcy, it is held together by Felician nuns devoted to helping students overcome the scourges of poverty by preparing them for college educations and a brighter future. And each year from the student body of just over 200, Coach Bob Hurley forges an elite nationally ranked basketball team through hard work, his coaching genius, and the sheer force of his personality. In thirty-one years as a coach, Hurley has won twenty-two state championships, two USA Today national titles, and has sent all of his players to college except for one (including his son Bobby, one of the greatest players in college basketball history). Award-winning sportswriter Adrian Wojnarowski brings the stories of the St. Anthony 2003–2004 season to vivid life, as Hurley struggles to turn a troubled group of players into state champions and national title contenders again—while keeping the school he loves alive to continue its educational mission at any cost.

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Price: $3.85 [Notify me when price goes down.]

Perhaps it was fitting justice: a dentist who enjoyed inflicting pain was murdered in his own chair. The question is not who wanted Dr. Frederick Nielsen dead, but rather who of the many finally reached the breaking point. The sordid details of this case, with its shocking revelations of violence, cruelty, and horrific sexual abuse, would be tough for any investigator to stomach. But for Seattle Homicide Detective J.P. Beaumont, the most damning piece of the murderous puzzle will shake him to his very core -- because what will be revealed to him is nothing less than the true meaning of unrepentant evil.

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Price: $3.95 [Notify me when price goes down.]

Ethan wakes up one morning with a talking cat on his head. The cat refuses to budge until Ethan wins a game of probability Without looking, Ethan must pick out a dime from his coin collection or two matching socks from his dresser, or do something else improbable. A very improbable story about a challenging math concept..
Price: $10.52 [Notify me when price goes down.]

Follow Jane Booth's humorous, honest and surprising journey from a woman who couldn't tell the front from the rear of her bike helmet to an athlete capable of competing in an Olympic-distance triathlon Celebrate her every victory, from a skirmish with a wayward wetsuit to conquering her fear of falling off her bike. Race alongside her as she battles to finish a race that lies at the outermost edge of her abilities. And share Jane's unexpected discovery of how endurance sport changed her attitudes, her aspirations and her whole approach to life..
Price: $11.29 [Notify me when price goes down.]

In this spirited history of the remarkable first four years of the convict settlement of Australia, Thomas Keneally offers us a human view of a fascinating piece of history.

Combining the authority of a renowned historian with a brilliant narrative flair, Keneally gives us an inside view of this unprecedented experiment from the perspective of the new colony’s governor, Arthur Phillips. Using personal journals and documents, Keneally re-creates the hellish overseas voyage and the challenges Phillips faced upon arrival: unruly convicts, disgruntled officers, bewildered and hostile natives, food shortages, and disease. He also offers captivating portrayals of Aborigines and of convict settlers who were determined to begin their lives anew. A Commonwealth of Thieves immerses us in the fledgling penal colony and conjures up the thrills and hardships of those first four improbable years..
Price: $9.44 [Notify me when price goes down.]

From a brilliant new talent comes a riveting novel of chance, fate, and numbers, and one man's strange journey past the boundaries of the possible.

David Caine inhabits a world of obsession, rich rewards, and rapid, destructive downfalls. A compulsive gambler and brilliant mathematician prone to crippling epileptic seizures, he possesses the uncanny ability to calculate odds of any hand in the blink of an eye. But one night at an underground poker club, Caine makes a costly mi scalculation, sending his life spinning out of control. Desperate, he agrees to test an experimental drug with unnerving side effects: inexplicable visions of the past, present, and future. Unsure whether he's perceiving an alternate reality or suffering a psychotic breakdown, Caine embarks on a journey that stretches beyond the possible into the world of the improbable. Gradually, he discovers the extent of his astonishing new ability -- but powerful, shadowy forces know Caine's secret. Now Caine must fight for his survival -- and his sanity . . .

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Price: $1.50 [Notify me when price goes down.]